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Research on Investment by Chinese MNEs in Latin America:A Theoretical Perspective on Practical Issues, 2000-2016

胡安(Juan Pablo Dominguez)  
【摘要】:China's Outward Direct Investment is becoming an important force in the world of financing and capital.This study aims to analyze the ODI practice in China in Latin America for the last decade and a half.The paper makes use of a comprehensive theoretical framework borrowing concepts and constructs from other social sciences such as International Business,Internationational Relations and Organizational Theory so as to create a picture of how this South-to South exchange has been evolving.We used data from the year 2000 up to February 2016 with 4,794 unique observations for 28 countries into which 77 different Multinationals from China have made 2.159 different investment operations.The objective of this thesis is to fill a void in the General Theory of FDI by presenting tests regarding motivation behind the investment decision by Chinese MNEs in Latin America.We use different variables and classify them into 3 main categories: organizational level,international relations and politics level and macro-economic level.We also analyzed industry sectors that have been the center of investment by Chinese companies in the region.We analyzed financing behavior of the main policy banks focusing on its role in the Latin America as an alternative source of capital without restrictive preconditions as of other banking institutions.We find that there is strong evidence that strategic considerations are changing into a different era where natural resource extraction is falling into a second or third level of consideration in the investment decision.The generation of value by such investment has multiplicative effects that transform into higher opportunities of development for the different economies.The analysis of such becomes an important tool for governments and policy makers.We therefore aim to develop a quantitative model using Structural Equation Modeling instead of simple regression models that fail to take into account error measurements that are an important consideration in social sciences estimation.We follow Buckley et al models of the determinants of Chinese ODI but complement it with additional elements from different fields of study.We make emphasis on the data selection so as to avoid round-tripping and other biases that are common in investment data.We found that investor motivations are not based on the premise of simple capital gains and that the role of diplomacy proxied by State Visits is the most relevant variable explaining the variance of the endogenous variables.By dividing the recipient countries into three different categories following the Geogravitational Centers principles further evidence is given in support of the role of diplomacy and leaving trade and natural resources as a second and third engine of motivation.Another important facet of this investment is that China is making use of its cash and credit as a way to gain the favor of developing economies with some saying in detriment to previous powers role in the region.We also found that current development of estimation techniques in the presence of possible endogeneity and time lags requires further research.The SEM contemporary specification still lacks the ability to account for the past in the current events.Furthermore the failure to have rigid goodness of fit indices makes its results less reliable.


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